SDYC Hot Rum #1: Wind, Tide & Current

Saturday 7 November 2026 · First start 11:55 · Coronado Roads, San Diego

Prepared 6 November 2026 · Confidential · For Pacific Yankee Only

Our start

12:37:02

Class 3

Race info

VHF 69

Must check in on starboard.

Course 1 (default)

Start · 2 to port · 3 to port · 4 to port · 5 to starboard · Finish

Mark 1: SD Channel Buoy #17.
Mark 2: yellow inflatable, approx. 0.2 nm @ 020° from SD Channel Buoy #4.
Mark 3: yellow inflatable, approx. 2.0 nm from Mark 2, bearing 065°.
Mark 4: yellow inflatable, approx. 0.5 nm from Mark 3, bearing 346°.
Mark 5: yellow inflatable, approx. 2.0 nm @ 260° from Mark 4.

Wind (RRFS / HRRR)

12–17 kts

305–315°

Easterlies inland and warm temps should set up a good sea breeze.

Tide

6.7 ft fall

High 07:18 (6.10 ft) to low 14:11 (−0.59 ft). The race starts 2 h 16 m before low water.

Surface current

110–120°

Current generally moves toward 110–120°, up to 0.85 kt further south on the course. An eddy starts to form near Zuniga later in the race.

01Tides: Ballast Point, San Diego

NOAA predictions, feet above MLLW, times PST (curve fitted between highs and lows). The red band is Saturday's race window (11:55 to ~15:00). The race runs through the last of the ebb, low water and the first hour of flood.

02Wind: Latest models (RRFS 7 Nov 00Z, HRRR 7 Nov 03Z, AI-GFS 7 Nov 00Z)

Saturday: RRFS 3 km, HRRR and AI-GFS

Wind at the middle of the course. Shaded bands are the gust ranges (RRFS dark, HRRR light). RRFS is hourly; HRRR (03Z) is hourly to 13:00; AI-GFS is 6-hourly with no gust data.

Time (Sat)	RRFS 3 km (7 Nov 00Z)	HRRR (7 Nov 03Z)	AI-GFS (7 Nov 00Z)
09:00	2.1–2.4 kn · 350°	3.0–10.1 kn · 104°	–
10:00	2.7–4.0 kn · 294°	3.8–7.5 kn · 200°	3.9 kn · 315°
11:00	7.5 kn · 284°	9.1–10.6 kn · 272°	–
12:00	12.5–13.1 kn · 305°	11.2–13.8 kn · 302°	–
13:00	15.0–16.9 kn · 315°	12.6–15.9 kn · 304°	–
14:00	13.4–15.8 kn · 310°	–	–
15:00	12.9–15.7 kn · 312°	–	–
16:00	12.1–16.9 kn · 323°	–	11.7 kn · 314°

03Surface current during the race

These three frames from my SD Current Model bracket the hours around low tide. The readings are generally taken beyond SD1, so they don't show all the nuance of the eddy that begins to form near Zuniga as the flood starts along that shoal.

Current model LW −0:20 — EBB **≈ LW −0:20** (Sat ≈ 13:50)
121° ESE · avg 0.41 kt · 0.14–0.74 kt · 46 obs

Current model LW +1:15 — FLOOD **≈ LW +1:15** (Sat ≈ 15:25)
112° ESE · avg 0.41 kt · 0.08–0.85 kt · 42 obs

Pathogen Model (Visualization of Surface Currents): Saturday 12:00–16:00

The TJ River pathogen model shows a good estimation of the surface currents working near Point Loma and Zuniga.

The plume's edges trace the surface flow: cleaner water curling in off the Point Loma tip, bay water jetting out of the channel past Zuniga on the ebb, and the set across Coronado Roads. Compare the frames with the current model grabs above.

The TJ River pathogen model shows a good estimation of the surface currents working near Point Loma and Zuniga.

04Race model: VPP prediction

First pass of the routing process. Start 12:37:02 (Class 3). Wind is read from the HRRR (to 13:00) and RRFS fields at the boat's position along the course.

Simulated tracks — Pacific Yankee · simulated track on the SD Current Model (current at ≈ LW +0:20). Mark-to-mark distance as sailed in the model: 11.91 nm (Mark 5 is passed, not rounded).

Pacific Yankee · Cape 31 · start 12:37:02 → finish 14:08 (1:30:44)

Leg	ETA	Time	nm	POS	TWA	TWS	Current
Start → Ballast Pt	12:45	8 min	1.14	Broad reach	123°	10.0	0.3 kt → 168°
Ballast Pt → Mark 2 (port)	13:04	19 min	3.04	Broad reach	138°	12.2	0.3 kt → 145°
Mark 2 → 3 (port)	13:16	11 min	2.00	Broad reach	121°	14.5	0.7 kt → 121°
Mark 3 → past Mark 4 (port)	13:20	4 min	0.50	Fetch	48°	13.9	0.4 kt → 121°
Mark 4 → Mark 5 (stbd)	13:38	19 min	2.03	Fetch (1 tack)	45°	14.1	0.4 kt → 121°
Mark 5 → Finish	14:08	30 min	3.20	Fetch (1 tack)	47°	13.2	0.1 kt → 138°

Polar: ORC Club certificate 2024, USA 31062 (ORC ref 04560003AJJ, VPP 2024 1.00)

Sources. Tide predictions: NOAA, Ballast Point, San Diego. Wind: RRFS 3 km and AI-GFS GRIBs, 7 Nov 2026 00Z run; HRRR GRIB, 7 Nov 2026 03Z run. Current: CampbellSailing.com SD Current Model (field statistics displayed). Pathogen Model: Scripps Institution of Oceanography TJ River Pathogen Forecast Model, screen captured Thu 5 Nov 2026 (model updated 4 Nov 16:00). These are forecasts and models only, updates and observations to be confirmed.